Thursday, November 26, 2020

The Problem of Evil--a Thanksgiving Story

Jim Jefferies, a transgressive comic, got me thinking about the problem of evil. If all-powerful God is good, why does evil exist?

Some religions have many gods or no god, but the ones with which I am most familiar, the desert religions, have one god. 

Followers speculate about what the one Creator is like.  As I see it, the only strong evidence for what the Creator is like is his creation, the universe. 

The Creator, then, made wonders like berry ice cream and the laughter of children. But what about rabbits eaten by hungry coyotes? How do theorists explain a Creator who put together the coronavirus?

The usual answer is that God's ways are unknowable to us, a mystery we should accept. Jeffries explores this concept with a parable even I can grasp. Suppose a Samaritan is walking along a crowded sidewalk and he sees a woman. He hits her on the head, she falls, and then he begins to rape her. A police officer grabs him and shouts, "Are you insane? Why are you doing that?" And the Samaritan responds, "I don't know! It's a mystery!"


 


Monday, November 23, 2020

Defunding the Police?

Crackpots and other Republicans have, of late, accused the Democrats of indulging in cannibalism and of demanding that the police be defunded. Centrist Democrats have denied the cannibalism part, and I believe they are probably right. 

Centrist Democrats agree with Republican crackpots that progressive Democrats campaigned in favor of defunding the police. And that this cost the party votes in swing districts. 

Speaking for myself, I'd like to see racist police departments defunded and replaced by anti-racist departments, so I am guilty as charged, except that I am not a Democrat. I'm independent.

There must be a Democrat somewhere who actually ran on a platform calling for defunding the police, but basically this charge is a fabrication. Progressive Democrats are way too chicken to support the Black Lives Matter slogan. (That's why I'm not a Democrat.)

So why are centrist Democrats lying about their own progressive congress members? Well, the centrists want to retain power. Power is worth billions of dollars. To control that money and retain their ties to Wall Street, the centrists have to club down the progressive wing of their party. 

Here's another theory about why the Dems recently lost seats. What they offer the voters is mighty thin oatmeal, mostly water. If they offer warm, thick stew the next time around, they might attract hungry voters. Or not. Undecided voters seem able to overlook issues like life vs. death. 

Saturday, November 21, 2020

Why Polls Fail

 My brother sent me a Washington Post article in which the writer claimed that today most people are no longer willing to be polled. So the polling data comes from a tiny minority of the willing. 

I think it's possible that very few of the willing wear MAGA hats. 

If a pollster does manage to get an old white man to cooperate, that dude is probably not representative. So the true margin of error in polls is increasing, and the support for Spanky Braincrumb has been underestimated.



also on Facebook

Thursday, November 19, 2020

Felony

At the moment, Rudy, Lindsay and President Spanky are tampering with an election. That is a felony. 

They should be charged and stand trial. Biden should, of course, start an investigation, but he is unlikely to do much unless Kamala manages to provide the man with a stronger spine. 

Biden will probably let everything slip, setting another awful precident. We are talking big, long term damage. I've always thought Biden isn't big enough to handle the job. But he isn't a traitor. Biden is infinitely preferable to Spanky.  It's a relief to see Joe on the tube. 

By stalling the transition, attempting a coup, Lindsay, Rudy and Spanky are promoting the coronavirus and killing Americans. They should be held accountable. For once in their hugely privileged lives.

Monday, November 16, 2020

Diversity in Cabinet Making

Joe Biden will have to choose carefully if he wants his cabinet to be diverse. He has promised it will represent all of us.

A diverse cabinet that reflects all of America will help make Americans feel invested in the government and presidential decisions. It will give us leadership that looks like America. 

Biden could start by appointing several morons. A moron could serve, for example, as secretary of education. But that's not enough. At least a third of American voters are determinedly stupid, and securing their input and trust is central to diversity at the cabinet level.

Hicks have long been underrepresented in the cabinet. Why not have the Dept. of Defense led by an evangelical, opiate-munching white woman from southern Ohio who dropped out of junior high to work as a lap dancer? 

Biden should consider asking the leader of Big Tobacco to serve as secretary of state, in large part because of his experience in providing smokes to third world nations. This man knows foreigners  He could simultaneously serve as secretary of labor, bringing to bear what he has learned from breaking unions.  

Finally,  Biden might want to include in his truly diverse cabinet a representative QANON rapist who argues that Obama is a Communist and a devout Moslem who died in 1984 and was replaced by a body-double trained by George Soros' nurse practitioner. 

Sunday, November 15, 2020

Minority Rule

From the start this country has struggled with the problem of minority rule. The Founders gave us a system that excluded women (a majority), people of color, Amerindians, the enslaved, ex-convicts, the young and poor white males. On paper most of that has been fixed, but clever voter suppression techniques still deny the vote to many. 

In my lifetime Truman and Clinton were elected without winning a majority (but they did finish first). Bush and tRump won by finishing second. That's ridiculous.

In our system, half the time a minority rules and then often passes laws making it harder for a majority to win. The minority clings to power. We should do something about that.



Friday, November 13, 2020

Empathy

 

 I want those who voted for Death Trump to get the food, shelter, medical care and shoes we all need.  But do they care about me? Or does empathy run in one direction, like human empathy for wolverines? 

Wednesday, November 11, 2020

Trump's Coup

The president of the United States lost his bid for re-election, and he--and the crackpots he's allowed into the White House-- is attempting a coup. A coup here! Spanky has at least the nominal backing of the shameless leader of the senate and the attorney general. He has fired leadership among the military and installed puppets. He stacked the Supreme Court (which still might not support the coup). The White House has a (stupid) plan.


Fortunately Pres. Spanky is feeble and cowardly, but the situation is unique in our history, and it is dangerous.


A recent poll showed that only 3% of the voters believe Spanky won the election. 


We are told to wait it out, to give a nutter and his parasites a chance to cool down and adjust. That is madness. Our system has failed. We're relying on luck to get by.  Fingers crossed. 

Monday, November 9, 2020

Converting Evangelicals

Angelo Fiddelmann has called for a movement to convert evangelicals to Christianity. Fiddelmann is himself a secular Christian, a New Testament man, who takes the teachings of Jesus seriously. 


My own experience with evangelicals is that some are unfamiliar with basic Bible stories. Recently I was chatting with an evangelical, and I mentioned Jonah. He stared at me blankly. Never heard of Jonah. 


If converted, Evangelicals may become familiar with, for example, Mark, where Jesus says, "You shall love your neighbor as yourself." Note what Mark does not say: "If a neighbor woman crosses the desert holding a small child, you should take away the child and keep it. Now it belongs to you." 

Friday, November 6, 2020

Outcomes

 Alison Soltau summed up the situation best: this is the kind of election result that restores your faith in the humanity of one out of two people. 


My sense is that the smartest elected Republicans in Washington are the ones who can tell which way the wind is blowing. 



A Note from an Expert

I can't tell you how many times women have praised me for my knowledge of political polling. Tuesday night, at about ten-thirty, was one of the best. Joe Biden was down by 15 percentage points. I was surrounded by tears of rage. But the tears were mopped up when I reminded everyone that the pollers had showed Biden eventually winning Michigan and Wisconsin. No worries.

The polls (but not the politicians) had tended to predict that Biden would take home a much larger win than the one he got. Instead it was a squeaker. That harmed the reputation of polling. But the political pros had never called for a huge win and had made that clear. They had, however, predicted a close victory. 

I mean, c'mon. 

Thursday, November 5, 2020

The Brown Belt


To date the analysis of the 2020 election by the talking TV heads on CNN  and MSNBC has been pathetic. Here is some real news, much of it from Juan Gonzales. 


President Spanky's support among American voters grew quite a bit after 2016. (The poll takers somehow overlooked this in their calculations.)


Spanky just won the support of a majority of white American women. (My guess is that the law and order scare worked its usual magic. A majority of white women accidentally voted against the right to choose and in favor of the main inciter of violence.)  The gender gap exists only among people of color. Wow.


From 2008 to 2020 the number of white voters decreased from 109 million to 104 million. (The Republican Party is now whiter than a snowbank.)


From 2008 to 2020  the number of Latino voters increased from 10 million to 23 million. (We now have a brown belt in the Southwest and California.) There were also increases among Asian voters, Amerindian voters, etc. 


But mainstream TV isn't talking about any of this.

Tuesday, November 3, 2020

Hijab

Many years ago, when the dean was annoyed with me, she assigned me to teach a survey course in world religions. That is how I became expert in the hijab controversy. 


A number of countries have criminalized Moslem religious clothing, including veils, masks and the hijab, which covers a woman's hair, neck and sometimes her face. These same counties tend not to criminalize the head coverings, collars and black dresses worn by Christian preachers and nuns. America has not banned the costumes worn by ultra-orthodox Jews. I don't think we care about the outfits worn by Moslem men from oil-rich nations.  


The argument for criminalizing Moslem items is that the loose clothing and facial coverings may disguise terrorists. Yet today all Americans, including stupid people, Protestants and superheroes, are urged to wear masks; the terrorist-protection angle may seem less compelling. 


It occurred to me that terrorists wearing hijabs might be ineffective.   


Also the desert religions (Judaism, Christianity and Islam) have a history of subjugating women and forcing them to wear wigs or bathe or whatever.  So should we ban the hijab? Or ritual baths? Or can we trust Islamic women to make their own scarf choices?


I'm not very religious. I do believe that my ancient religion played a major part in how it became possible to organize safe towns where strangers could safely pass one another on the sidewalks. In the old days, if you were wearing a Zeus hat, you could often trust the strangers wearing Zeus hats not to sneak up on you with a knife. Or something like that.


It might be common sense to let people decide for themselves what to worship and how to signal their status.

Sunday, November 1, 2020

Voters Shift

 

This analysis by the Marist Poll gives people a

good look at one state.



BIDEN UP BY 6 POINTS IN NORTH CAROLINA

October 2020

In North Carolina, former Vice President Joe Biden receives the support of 52% to 46% for President Donald Trump among likely voters including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or who already voted. Among North Carolina registered voters, Biden has 51% to 46% for Trump. Biden (51%) was +7 points over Trump (44%) among North Carolina registered voters in July.

  • Biden leads Trump among Blacks who are likely to vote, those who say they are voting by mail or absentee ballot, white voters with a college degree – especially white women with a college degree – voters under the age of 45, women, and voters in the cities and suburbs.

  • Trump is ahead among white Evangelical Christians, those who plan to vote in-person on Election Day, whites -- especially white men without a college degree – men, and voters in small towns or rural areas.

  • Trump is +14 among whites. He carried this group by 31 points in 2016.

  • Independents are +9 points for Biden, a group that supported Trump by 16 points in 2016.

  • Voters age 65 and older divide (50% Trump to 49% Biden). Trump defeated Hillary Clinton by 23 points among these voters in 2016.

  • 62% of registered voters report having voted.

  • Only 2% of likely voters are persuadable, that is, voters who are undecided or who support a candidate but might vote differently.

Pandemic Studies

Is Trumpolini planning to reopen Trump University and offer a two week course in which you become an M.D.?