The Many Polls

On the last day in October, Nate Silver, who looks at all the polls and then sets odds, has President Obama's chances of reelection at 77.4%. The Democrats' chance of keeping control of the Senate: about 90%.  Watching Silver's odds has proved calming over the last few months, because on television what gets reported--apparently--is whatever individual poll makes the race most exciting. In actual practice that has meant reporting whatever poll puts Mittly Romney in the lead or close to it.

My best guess is that President Obama has held a small but stubborn lead in the swing states all along. Voters made up their minds months ago. We'll find out next week.

Sununu's Head

Maybe the race-baiting John Sununu should model a mask for the Halloween holiday. Certainly the man's visage, like his soul, is ugly to the bone. His latest TV charge is that Colin Powell endorsed President Obama because both men are black. Black people are, in Sununu's view, robots who vote as a unit on the basis of race. Let's look at the facts.

Three prominent black leaders ran for President before Obama. Shirley Chisholm, the first elected black woman in the House, ran and drew little support from black voters. Carol Moseley Braun, the first elected black woman in the Senate, ran and drew little support from black voters. You might say that they were guilty of running while being female. Jesse Jackson ran and did better with the voters but lost in key primaries at the end.  None achieved anything like the 95% or better support from black voters that Obama gets today. Obama does better because he more fully represents an ideology, and he does it with grace. The United States is divided between voters who prefer authoritarian leadership, mostly white and male, and those who respond to discussion, reasoning and compromise. President Obama leads the second group.

When JFK became President, my family, which was about half Irish Catholic, was delighted. But they never supported Joe McCarthy for anything, because McCarthy was a drunken destructive irresponsible liar, not as bad a person as Sununu but close enough. It is true that race has become a growing factor in elections--polls show white racism on the rise--but the claim that black people vote for Obama because he is half black is mendacious, echoing from deep inside Sununu's bowel system, into which he has inserted his astonishingly ugly head.

Evangelical Equality

Women will defeat Romney in the swing states, and I thank them. But there is a kind of evangelical woman who likes authoritarian subjection. My wife worked with one and asked her, "Who makes the decisions in your family?" My husband and I do, the evangelical told her. We are equals. "What happens when you disagree?" my wife asked. Oh, he decides. He's the husband. (My wife was unable to convince the women that this wasn't equality.)

Romney vs. McCain

I'm not a John McCain fan, but I think I detect a difference between him and Mittly Romney. Both of them supported the Vietnam War, but one of them volunteered, was captured and tortured, and the other hid out in France, trembling in the sack. Both debated Obama, but only one of them ended up adopting nearly all of the President's positions on foreign policy while bug-eyed in fright. Yesterday both responded to Richard Mourdock, a Republican senate candidate who opined that a pregnancy resulting from a rape was God's will. Keep in mind that Mourdock is five feet tall and molded from dark but runny vulture poop. McCain immediately withdrew his endorsement from Mourdock; Romney is running ads for this mound of fecal matter. I'd say one of them--McCain or Romney--is an outstanding coward of a sort seldom seen in a Presidential campaign.

Rewriting History

When Lance Armstrong went for his first Tour de France title, his competition was Jan Ulrich, a former winner. Armstrong won; Ulrich finished second and a few years later was caught doping and retired. At the end of Armstrong's career, his main rival was Alberto Contador, who won the final Tour that Armstrong rode in (Armstrong finished third). Contador was later suspended for a year because he failed a drug test. So it seems that Armstrong's main competitors were cheating, and it's unlikely that he was helping them. 

Armstrong, maybe using smaller dosages and better masking drugs, never failed a drug test.

Today the bike racing establishment and the sportswriters are heaping all blame on Armstrong. Twenty or thirty professional bike riders have claimed that Armstrong forced them to cheat. It wasn't their decision or their fault--blame Armstrong, a terrifying giant of a man, menacing at nearly 165 pounds.  His long time friends have announced that they were never friends. His sponsors are getting ready to sue him to get their money back. His prize money over the years is in jeopardy. People who donated to his cancer charity--Livestrong--claim with faces screwed up in emotional agony that they have been disappointed and want their donations returned, which--I have to say as a cancer survivor--creeps me out.

Where other dopers were given suspensions of six months, Armstrong has been banned from sports for life and his seven straight wins of the Tour de France (against other cheaters) have been wiped from the records. I doubt if they will be erased from our memories, though. This twist in the Armstrong  tale will make him even more mythical. Meanwhile Barry Bonds, Mark McGuire, Karl Lewis, the NFL and countless other cheaters find most doors wide open and their money not under assault.

Why Obama Disappointed Scott the Voter

"I, Scott, was one of about 70 million people who voted for President Obama, and I have been disappointed. When I cast a ballot for Obama, I thought he had agreed to make the same decisions I would make. That is why I supported him.  I know what is right, and he should do what is right and not what is wrong. Of course, a few times he made the right decision, but often he made decisions other people wanted, including people who had voted for John McCain or people who disagreed with me, people who were wrong. Or he would make a decision that was part right and part what a different voter wanted. I am forced to ask, What sort of man acts like that, compromising my views with other views? Let's be honest. That is weak. The President was supposed to be my representative, and I can't tell you how many times he fell short. He should do what I want, the right thing. That's how democracy works."

CBS ENDORSES ROMNEY BS

As most of you know, in his first short speech after the attack in Benghazi, President Obama said (on film) that "no acts of terror will ever shake the resolve of this great nation." In the debate last night, Mittly Romney insisted that the President had not called the Benghazi attack an act of terror until two weeks later. Romney was then corrected by Obama and by the moderator, Candy  "Right Wing" Crowley. Today the claim being made by Mittly Romney is that when Obama said "acts of terror" he was not talking about Benghazi. In fact, on film, Benghazi is the sole topic of the brief talk. Total Romney bullshit. But CBS News tonight gave a lot of time to support Romney on this matter, parroting the Fox News line. So much for CBS News and the corporation that owns it--totally biased. I've watched CBS News for the last time.

Toe Walker

Some time back my younger brother mentioned what is wrong with Romney: he's a toe walker. Compare him to the more talented George W. Bush, the Connecticut Kid, who moved to Texas and learned to walk bowlegged like a cowboy. 

Last night on the stage, with President Obama easily loping about, Romney was toe-walking up to people, lurching forward with tentative tiny steps, unsure of how to relate or proceed. He wasn't sure what to fake. What to do, what to do?

Surely we will not be electing a toe walker President.

Are the Poor Stinky?

In the process of filling out my ballot, I came across an interesting race for the Sonoma County Board of Education.  Among the candidates are Cheryl Scholar, a Democrat who has served on the Windsor Town Council, and Lisa Schaffner, a Republican who manages the office out of which corporations gut the people of Sonoma County. Lisa Schaffner is the sort of high-toned Republican who finds poor people kind of stinky. 

It's a close call, but I will vote for Cheryl Scholar.

Amazing Stakes

When Presidents Eisenhower and Nixon accepted the New Deal reforms and moved on, most of us believed that those gains had become permanent. They remained permanent until President Reagan began the process of undoing the New Deal. He got a few steps down that road. President G. W. Bush took some bigger steps. What we are faced with today is Mittly Romney and the Tea Party, who intend to repeal the social gains made in the 20th century. All of them.

Today the Republicans are hard at work restricting the right to vote, denying voting to the poor, to Latinos, to Black people. They are intent on reducing women's right to make their own health decisions (resuming the patriarchy's control of women's bodies). If the Republicans win, the graduated income tax will likely fall. Medicare and Social Security, of course, are under attack. There is talk among Republicans about reverting to having senators elected by state legislatures, although that seems far fetched. But 30 years ago an attack on Social Security seemed unlikely. 

What can you do? Send a small contribution to President Obama's campaign or to your local congress member.




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Ryan Is Stupid--No Wonder Biden Laughed

I've gotten so used to the stupidity of Republican positions that I seldom react to them. For the last month (for example), Mittly Romney has been telling reporters on screen that he agrees with President Obama's timed withdrawal from Afghanistan. And then he tells them that a timed withdrawal is a mistake. Within the space of 120 seconds he takes both sides on the matter. That is Mittly, and no one turns a hair. No one cares. Then last night Paul Ryan did the same thing. Rachel Maddow called this to our attention. And look, nearly 50% of the voters are going to support these two morons. Nothing is too stupid to alter the votes of half of our nation, the half that made a mediocre actor the President of the United States and followed up by supporting a dim-witted, burned out, dry alcoholic for two terms that ended in a second great depression. What did they learn from this? Nada.

President Obama Leads

10/10/12
Nate Silver has President Obama as a 2-1 favorite to win, which is down from 3-1 before the first debate. Life is still good--but Obama cannot afford another media feeding frenzy. By the way, these ritzy shows are not debates. They are two guys with talking points. They serve no purpose now except to give Romney a platform for lying, which raises money for advertising, which means that a feeding frenzy is highly profitable for TV networks.

Did Romney Win New Votes?

I'm not sure who won the debate. Noisy male analysts on TV seem sure that Obama was not noisy enough. Why can't he be more like them?

 Romney's style appealed to men who want to dominate, men like Chris Mathews, for example. Mathews supports Obama, but on style alone Romney seems a winner to him. 

Obama's style appeals to calmer people who don't set the highest value on how loudly you can push others around. Why would most women find Romney's style to their taste? They must get tired of loud men. Why would minority people find Romney's bullying of a timid moderator and a Black President a reason to vote for a bully? I'm beginning to think that Obama's calmness will work in his favor over time. I'm beginning to think that Obama decided to be himself, that he's not a bully, and that calmness might be good strategy. (Fingers crossed.)

The purpose of a Presidential debate is not to win the debate but to win over voters. Romney pleased his base--but did he please anyone else? Maybe the next round of polls will tell us.

A Rabid Dog Enters The Room

The first Presidential debate has been won by an Mitt Romney in the much the same way that a rabid dog coming into the room wins your attention. Romney was deeply unpleasant, President Obama looked like a man wondering why his course in life had led him to an encounter with a troll  who wanted to eat Big Bird. Meanwhile Jim the Moderator helplessly flapped his gums in the far distance. Aside from Romney's aggression, the debate was a snoozefest for people not dedicated to the analysis of the federal budget.

Neither George W. Bush nor Barack Obama has a history of winning debates. That's not how they got elected. Meanwhile Romney has provided more quotes for future Obama ads. I'm waiting for the ad in which Romney repeats his plan to end PBS and fire Jim the Moderator and Big Bird.

The Radical Right & Paranoia

The Internet serves as a good place for the Radical Right to make money. Below is a brief sample of how the Right goes about raising cash. The "DHS" referred to is the Dept of Homeland Security.

Obama is nationalizing industries (automakers, the internet, healthcare) and going around Congress to impose his agenda (Net Neutrality, the Dream Act, cybersecurity). America is now paying the price for the “hope and change” propaganda of 2008.
And he is placing the DHS front and center as the Gestapo of the United States.

This is the same agency that gropes you at the airport (and steals your belongings with increasingly regularity); and they also released a report warning of radical groups in the U.S. comprised of Christians, war veterans, pro-life supporters and small government promoters.

Are conservatives now going to be labeled as “terrorists” by the Obama administration and singled out for destruction?
His administration has targeted many conservative individuals and groups for auditing; it is no reach to assume he will use the power of the government to stamp out any dissenters.