In Virginia, a swing state, a very weak Democratic candidate for governor was elected while losing the independent vote to his women-suppressing Republican opponent. For some reason, married women supported the Republican, but single women voted overwhelmingly for the Democrat. Single women and black people created the winning coalition.
Nationally the Democratic base is suddenly larger than the Republican base. In a country that has become sharply and cleanly divided without much of middle, elections become a matter of which side gets out its base. If both sides get out their bases, the Democrats will win. And that is a recent development.
On paper independents form a large block of voters, but studies have shown that individual independents consistently support one party or another. They don't swing from party to party. They are independents in name only. Let's call them INOs.
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