Chances Are

Nate Silver has set the President's chance of reelection at 9 to 1 odds. The usual TV analysts have it at about 50-50, and many of them are angry with Silver, who might be making bloviation a lost art, unless Silver is totally wrong.

In Silver's favor he can add and subtract. He knows math and statistics, but statistics can be misleading. Hence, "there are lies, big lies and statistics."

My sense (but what do I know?) is that President Obama began with a small firm lead and will end with the same lead. I suspect that voters made up their minds six months ago. It was one of those choices--between a lunch of chicken or chicken poop--people on both sides found easy. Anyone agonizing slowly over a choice between Obama and Romney is a political idiot.