The Many Polls

On the last day in October, Nate Silver, who looks at all the polls and then sets odds, has President Obama's chances of reelection at 77.4%. The Democrats' chance of keeping control of the Senate: about 90%.  Watching Silver's odds has proved calming over the last few months, because on television what gets reported--apparently--is whatever individual poll makes the race most exciting. In actual practice that has meant reporting whatever poll puts Mittly Romney in the lead or close to it.

My best guess is that President Obama has held a small but stubborn lead in the swing states all along. Voters made up their minds months ago. We'll find out next week.