Polling

What the latest polls show is that in a contest between Clinton and Trump, Clinton would win big.  But the contest is not between Clinton and Trump. The real contest includes Gary Johnson of the Libertarians and Jill Stein of the Greens. At the moment Johnson and Stein have the support of 16% of the voters, and Trump and Clinton are tied. 

As we have seen in the Brexit debacle, strange things happen when voters decide to rise up and punish the party establishments that ignore them. In some ways the "leave" voters resemble 
Trump supporters, but our situation is different. Our population is more diverse than that of England--it was the English in Great Britain who voted to leave. We have stronger groups of minorities, but we had better be careful in the coming months to make intelligent choices.