Divided

Independent voters (like me) now outnumber Democrats. Only 40% of Americans view the Democratic Party favorably. 

Of primary elections Mara Gay wrote, "The uprising against the Democratic establishment is coming from the voters, and it cannot be contained." 

The Democratic primary voters have shifted to the left of the Democratic leadership. The leadership has responded by gearing up for combat with new, younger members. 

To sweep in the next election, the two wings of the Democratic Party, the centrists and the progressives, must work together on divisive issues like those listed below. These are real differences where Democrats better find answers that honor both sides. 

How hard should the government work to reduce inequality?

Should we have a single payer healthcare system or improve ObamaCare? 

How much should we tax the oligarchy?

Should we re-arm Netanyahu?

Should we provide free college education or targeted student debt relief?

Should we insist on clean energy or put more focus on economic improvement?

Should we strongly regulate Big Business or regulate lightly for economic reasons?

Should we stop our military interventions or act forcefully in foreign policy?

In a sense Progressives and Centrists create one another. The party should try to work with both and act, get something done.    

Some elections are continuity elections. FDR, our most progressive president, was elected four times. But the election in 2026 is widely viewed as a change election. A majority of voters want the country to change, to move in a different direction. 

If the Democrats want to win, they should offer fresh ideas and new people. Their current leadership is as stale as old drapes in a smoking lounge. 

In Democratic primaries, the voters are making it clear they want a reversal of decades of downward economic slippage in the working and middle classes. 

One possibility is that the Democrats win control of the House in November and then dodder, managing to do little, held back by their big money old guard. This would surprise no one. The current Democratic leadership is already doing its best to squelch Mamdani, AOC and so on. 

Think back to other change elections. Trump vs. Clinton. Enough voters wanted change badly enough to vote for a mentally-ill criminal.

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• Party identification: Surveys in the U.S. typically find that about 25–30% of adults identify as Democrats, 25–30% identify as Republicans, and the largest group—roughly 40% or more—identify as independents. Many independents, however, consistently lean toward one party.
• Voter support: In recent presidential elections, the Democratic candidate has generally received around 47–52% of the popular vote, depending on the election. The party has won the national popular vote in most presidential elections since the 1990s, though that has not always translated into winning the presidency because of the Electoral College.
• Favorability: Public opinion of the Democratic Party rises and falls over time. Polls often find that around 35–45% of Americans have a favorable view of the party, with similar levels expressing an unfavorable view. These numbers can shift significantly based on current events and the political environment.

Overall, the Democratic Party is one of the two major political parties in the United States. It has a large and durable base of support but is also viewed unfavorably by many Americans. The U.S. electorate is closely divided, so neither the Democratic nor Republican Party consistently enjoys overwhelming national popularity.

If you're asking about a specific measure—such as current polling, party registration, or popularity in a particular state—I can provide more targeted information.

How popular is the Democratic party in recent polls 

Recent polling suggests the Democratic Party's national standing is mixed: it remains electorally competitive, but its overall favorability is still underwater.

Some recent measures include:

• Party favorability: A recent RealClearPolling average puts the Democratic Party at about 38% favorable and 55% unfavorable, for a net favorability of roughly –17 points. 
• Pew Research (May 2026): About 59% of Americans viewed the Democratic Party unfavorably, while favorable views had improved somewhat from a low reached in 2025 but remained below unfavorable views. 
• AP-NORC (2026): The poll found that many Democratic voters themselves remained dissatisfied with the party despite some electoral successes in special elections, suggesting enthusiasm within the party has not fully rebounded. 
• Congressional ballot: Despite weak favorability, some polls show Democrats performing better when voters are asked which party they would support for Congress. For example, an April 2026 Emerson poll found Democrats leading Republicans 50% to 40% on the generic congressional ballot. 

These findings highlight an important distinction:

• Favorability measures how positively people view the party itself.
• Vote intention measures which party people would choose in an election. A party can have relatively low favorability but still perform well electorally if voters prefer it over the alternative.

Overall, current polling indicates the Democratic Party is competitive in elections but not broadly popular, with favorability generally below 40% nationally while remaining in contention for congressional majorities

Recent polling suggests the Democratic Party's national standing is mixed: it remains electorally competitive, but its overall favorability is still underwater.

Some recent measures include:

• Party favorability: A recent RealClearPolling average puts the Democratic Party at about 38% favorable and 55% unfavorable, for a net favorability of roughly –17 points. 
• Pew Research (May 2026): About 59% of Americans viewed the Democratic Party unfavorably, while favorable views had improved somewhat from a low reached in 2025 but remained below unfavorable views. 
• AP-NORC (2026): The poll found that many Democratic voters themselves remained dissatisfied with the party despite some electoral successes in special elections, suggesting enthusiasm within the party has not fully rebounded. 
• Congressional ballot: Despite weak favorability, some polls show Democrats performing better when voters are asked which party they would support for Congress. For example, an April 2026 Emerson poll found Democrats leading Republicans 50% to 40% on the generic congressional ballot. 

These findings highlight an important distinction:

• Favorability measures how positively people view the party itself.
• Vote intention measures which party people would choose in an election. A party can have relatively low favorability but still perform well electorally if voters prefer it over the alternative.

Overall, current polling indicates the Democratic Party is competitive in elections but not broadly popular, with favorability generally below 40% nationally while remaining in contention for congressional majorities. 

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Explain some examples of a change election.

A change election is an election in which a large share of voters want the country to move in a different direction than they believe it's currently headed. These elections often occur during periods of economic trouble, war, scandal, or widespread dissatisfaction with the incumbent party.

Here are some notable U.S. examples:

1. 1932 – Franklin D. Roosevelt (Democrat)
   • The U.S. was in the depths of the Great Depression.
   • Voters blamed the incumbent Republican administration for the economic crisis.
   • Roosevelt won by promising the New Deal, marking a major shift in federal policy.
2. 1980 – Ronald Reagan (Republican)
   • High inflation, unemployment, and the Iran hostage crisis hurt confidence in the incumbent Democratic administration.
   • Reagan campaigned on smaller government, lower taxes, and a stronger military.
   • His victory ushered in a significant conservative shift.
3. 1992 – Bill Clinton (Democrat)
   • A recession and concerns about the economy weakened President George H. W. Bush.
   • Clinton emphasized economic issues with the message, "It's the economy, stupid."
   • Voters opted for a younger candidate promising change.
4. 2008 – Barack Obama (Democrat)
   • The financial crisis and the Iraq War contributed to widespread dissatisfaction with the outgoing Republican administration.
   • Obama's "Hope and Change" campaign captured voters seeking a new direction.
5. 2016 – Donald Trump (Republican)
   • Many voters expressed frustration with political institutions, globalization, and the political establishment.
   • Trump ran as an outsider promising to "drain the swamp" and renegotiate trade and immigration policies.

Common characteristics of change elections

• The incumbent party is unpopular.
• Many voters believe the country is on the wrong track.
• Economic or social conditions create demand for new leadership.
• Candidates emphasize reform or a break from the status quo.

Not every election is a change election. Some are continuity elections, where voters are generally satisfied with the country's direction and choose to keep the incumbent party in power. For example, the 1984 election, in which Reagan won reelection by a landslide, is often viewed as a continuity election because many voters approved of the direction the country was taking.

Cal

My grandfather, known as Cal, was about 14 when his father died. Cal’s older brothers agreed to pool resources and support their mother, Charity Jane, but they told young Cal he had to leave home and fend for himself. 

Cal had a tough first winter alone in Sanger. He cleaned a pool hall and slept on one of the tables.  By December that was too cold, but a sex worker took pity on the boy and let him snuggle with her until spring. 

The next winter Cal joined a passing circus as a roustabout, helping erect the tent and so on, until he took up with the circus sharpshooter’s wife. He left that job in the middle of the night. 

I suppose he lived a typical American life. He worked as a driller in the oil fields of California and Venezuela, bought 100 acres of land near the headwaters of the Salinas River and lost his home when he refused to let some rich guys hunt deer on his property.  They took the place, using eminent domain. My grandparents moved to Atascadero and eventually to Clovis, their last stop. 

My mother would say now that I don’t know what Cal was like. That I spent about 30 days total in his presence. 

The Cal that I describe here, she would say, is not the real Cal—she would compare what I wrote to Rene Magritte’s oil on canvas, “The Treachery of Images.”

What we say

Yesterday I drove downtown to a book store and bought a copy of the Dao De Jing for my grand-daughter. (She might be interested.) 

I had to look at several versions of the Dao De Jing; every translation is different. The text was written in ancient Chinese symbols. What the symbols had meant 2,400 years ago is somewhat unclear. 

Uncertainty seems appropriate given the first sentence, which I suspect is the single sentence read by the most people on our planet, read by nearly all the Chinese, most other Asians and some of the rest of us. 

Very roughly, the first sentence goes, "The Dao we call the Dao is not the eternal Dao."

That resembles Rene Magritte's "The Treachery of Images,"  also known as "This Is Not a Pipe."  A portrait of a pipe is not a pipe, and a recipe for an omelet is not an omelet. 

The author starts by telling us that seeking wisdom begins with learning the following. What we say about the world and the world itself are not the same and not constant. 

The author's goal, I think, is to help readers become less aggressive. If language is uncertain, we should be uncertain.  He begins with linguistic philosophy. Or maybe not.

Out At Last

Last night reports said that Sen. Lindsay Graham had died, and I believe he is dead. But what about Mitch McConnell? Last week he died in a hospital, and his wife flew off for an important meeting in China. Now she has returned. Is Sen. McConnell still dead? I don't think so. 

Balogun

Later this afternoon Belgium and the United States meet in a knockout soccer game in the big tournament. 

America's best scorer, Balogun, had been given a red card in the prior game, which made him ineligible for this game. But FIFA, the soccer organization, changed its mind at the last minute and allowed Balogun to participate. How this came about is unclear, but maybe it was because Donald Trump and FIFA, two utterly corrupt actors, made an agreement. 

First, and I am speaking as a one-time useless soccer coach, Balogun did not commit a foul and should not have been given a red card. Nearly everyone agrees. 

Second, FIFA and Trump should not be corrupt.

Third, the Belgium team leaders should not have tried to keep their opponent's best scorer off the field. You need a skilled opponent to play soccer. You should want the opponent to be at its best. There is no glory in knocking off weakened teams. 

Balogun, by the way, is actually British but also a birthright citizen of the USA.

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Soloists

The problem with concertos is how they start. You buy your ticket and you find a seat, and then you wait. You wait some more. You came to hear the soloist, right? But instead of starting with the world-famous soloist, the concerto begins with long minutes of the whole orchestra banging away, making you wait. 

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Horsemanship

Susan and I frequently watch Heather Cox Richardson's daily podcast, in which she explains, as historians will do, the news and its contexts. She's great, but she said something that annoyed me a few weeks back.

Cox claimed that among American presidents, the best horseman was probably Ronald Reagan.

I don't know how long Reagan stayed in a saddle, but I doubt if he was comparable to the Founding Fathers. Many of them rode horses every day. That's how they got around. 

For absolute best presidential horseman, most historians choose U.S. Grant. He set a high jump record at West Point. Grant had great technical skills. Washington and Teddy Roosevelt were also adept.

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Going With The Flow

Long ago I read an article about which sentence has been read by the most people over the centuries. I don't recall the winning sentence, but I didn't agree with the outcome. 

Probably no one knows the right answer, but I have a candidate for the most-read sentence. I started by assuming the sentence would be in Chinese and be known to every Chinese person and most Asians and some of the rest of us.  

My choice had first been written in ancient Chinese symbols, which lend themselves to multiple meanings and translations. Here is an example:  "The Dao that can be spoken of is not the ever- constant Dao." 

That's the first line of the Dao De Jing.  A variation might be, "The Dao we call the Dao is not the constant Dao." 

What "the Dao" meant 2400 years ago remains uncertain, but in part the sentence is apparently commenting on the nature of language. There is a difference between a process and the name we give the process. 

Consider Rene Magritte's painting of a pipe, called "The Treachery of Images" and also known as "This Is Not A Pipe."

So what does "Dao" mean? It means something that cannot be exactly defined in words, maybe something like "constantly changing natural processes." A central Daoist message might be, "Be spontaneous and don't fight Mother Nature."

Wittgenstein pointed out that words with cloudy meanings have an important role in language. Take the word "love." As a songwriter wrote, "You don't know what love is." 

You can experience love but not define it exactly.

 

Mahler

Do you know what's embarrassing? To discover Mahler when you're 91.